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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 6-C.Jones punts 31 yards to DAL 47, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 38-K.Barner ran ob at DAL 39 for 8 yards (51-K.Wilber).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.07 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 84, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 42, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model