4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 43

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 8-D.Jones punts 39 yards to DAL 4, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-32-R.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model