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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(:39) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to PHI 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 38-K.Barner to PHI 13 for 3 yards (35-K.Frazier).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.98 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -1.54 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model