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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to DAL 1, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.79 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model