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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to DAL 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 28 for 12 yards (45-R.Lovato).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP