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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 63

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to PHI 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-14-L.Lenoir.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.90 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP