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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(5:40) (Shotgun) 7-N.Sudfeld pass incomplete short left to 18-S.Gibson (23-B.Benwikere).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.79 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model