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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.88 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP