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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(10:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model