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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:46) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to TEN 25, Center-49-C.Holba. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 41 for 16 yards (25-P.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.14 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP