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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to JAX 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, touched at JAX 32, RECOVERED by TEN-89-P.Supernaw at JAX 23. PENALTY on JAX-85-J.Mickens, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at JAX 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.59 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP