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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 21

Tennessee Titans 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.79 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model