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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 12 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(13:47) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 63 yards to JAX 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 2. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 5 for 3 yards (13-T.Taylor; 88-L.Stocker).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.35 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 30, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model