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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 20

Tennessee Titans 12 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(7:47) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.51 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model