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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 15 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(9:28) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to JAX 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-89-P.Supernaw.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model