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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 15 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(5:09) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 25 yards to JAX 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.94 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP