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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP