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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 80

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 77 yards to DEN 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-80-J.Chesson.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.08 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 37, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model