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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(7:34) (Shotgun) 42-A.Sherman up the middle to DEN 24 for 5 yards (50-Z.Anderson; 34-W.Parks).

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.28 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model