4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 2

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 7-H.Butker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +3.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 2, worth +0.41 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP