Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 73

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(12:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 25 yards to KC 48, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-34-W.Parks.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.24 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model