Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 70

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

(:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to KC 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-D.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.96 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model