Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Denver Broncos 17

(5:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DEN 32, Center-41-J.Winchester. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 38 for 6 yards (25-K.Acker).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model