Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 41

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to KC 5, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-D.Thomas to KC 6 for 1 yard (38-M.Rios). KC-13-D.Thomas was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.89 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -1.79 EP

KICK -0.12 EP

50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
50% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model