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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 22

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.90 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model