Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 60

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 7

(8:47) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to NE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 27 for 15 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.46 EP
69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model