Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 81

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 14

(2:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to NE 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 42 for 2 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.61 EP
75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model