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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 62

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to NE 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 18 for 1 yard (45-R.Miles). PENALTY on NE-31-J.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at NE 18. Penalty on NE-29-J.Bademosi, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.08 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model