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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 56

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to NE 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model