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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 3

New England Patriots 21 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +3.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.44 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth +0.83 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP