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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 72

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(:13) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to NE 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.84 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model