4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 34

New England Patriots 24 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-R.Allen punts 30 yards to NYJ 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.85 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP