4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 30

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 7-C.Catanzaro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.93 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model