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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 67

New England Patriots 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:26) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to NYJ 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 14 for -1 yards (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model