4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 6-N.Rose 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (78-J.Ellis), Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens, RECOVERED by LV-39-K.McGill at LAC 30. 39-K.McGill to LAC 30 for no gain (10-K.Clemens).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.48 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model