Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to LAC 28, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin. PENALTY on LV-50-N.Morrow, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.79 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model