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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 83

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 4-D.Carr up the middle to LV 17 for no gain (93-D.Philon). FUMBLES (93-D.Philon), RECOVERED by LAC-99-J.Bosa at LV 16. 99-J.Bosa to LV 16 for no gain (4-D.Carr).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.19 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 41, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model