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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to LV 7 for no gain (53-N.Bowman, 96-D.Autry). LV-94-E.Vanderdoes was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.42 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 7, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model