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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 41

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 8-D.Kaser punts 30 yards to LV 11, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.89 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model