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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 5 at the 5
Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 30
What Actually Happened
(2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.
The Three Options
GO
+1.81 EP
What Happened
-
34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.39 EP
KICK
+2.03 EP
Model's Pick
- 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT
-0.47 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
