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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 20 at the 41
Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0
What Actually Happened
(2:43) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to LAC 1, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-1.06 EP
-
20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.27 EP
- 80% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP
KICK
-0.61 EP
- 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 48% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT
-0.51 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
