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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.16 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model