Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 6 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(13:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to SF 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 29 for 16 yards (53-C.Thompson; 27-I.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model