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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 86

Los Angeles Rams 6 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SF 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-T.Taylor to SF 40 for 3 yards (47-K.Peterson).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.86 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model