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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 6 – San Francisco 49ers 34

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 14-S.Mannion up the middle to SF 35 for 2 yards (56-R.Foster, 96-S.Day).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.52 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model