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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to LA 19, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-P.Cooper to LA 25 for 6 yards (45-T.Powell).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model