Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(13:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 66 yards to ATL 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-38-C.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model