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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to ATL 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model