4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 76

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to LA 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-P.Cooper to LA 21 for no gain (28-T.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.55 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model