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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 21

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(9:43) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to LA 20 for 1 yard (52-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model